Sports from the Basement

Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, July 14, 2019

July 14, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 7 Sweet Melania 2.00 3.4 6-1
10 8 Morning Gold 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 3 Days of Spring 5.00 4.9 9-1
7 5 Miss Marissa 4.00 5.4 10-1
6 4 Foreign Exchange 15.00 5.9 11-1
3 1 Lucky Jingle 8.00 6.6 12-1
8 6 Sign of the Times 6.00 7.5 14-1
4 2 Pearlescent 6.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Cat’s Pajamas 4.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Imincomunicado 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Passcode 3.00 3.4 6-1
9 7 Talent Scout 15.00 4.1 8-1
8 6 Elios Milos 4.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Mandatory Payout 5.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Keeping the Peace 2.50 5.4 10-1
2 2 Bustin to Be Loved 12.00 5.9 11-1
6 4 Hot Mesa 6.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Straphanger 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Belleville Spring 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Risp 4.00 4.7 9-1
7 6 Bears Mafia 8.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Crack Shot 2.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Wild Boar 5.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Wild William 8.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Call Me Harry 12.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Unlikely 15.00 10.4 20-1
6 6 Bulwark 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Adios Amigos 3.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Bassman Dave 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Blame the Cake 5.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Macho Boy 6.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Bank On Shea 3.50 5 9-1
1 1 Titan’s Will 4.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Our Destiny 12.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 No Salt 3.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 South Africa 5.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Kobe 15.00 8.2 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 5 Positive Skew 1.20 3.4 6-1
10 6 Free to Fly 4.50 3.8 7-1
12 8 Zabava 3.50 5.2 10-1
3 2 Retro Street 8.00 5.8 11-1
7 4 Zandora 12.00 6.5 12-1
11 7 Decorated Ace 10.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Sundrenched 12.00 8.8 17-1
5 3 Tempers Way 15.00 9.5 18-1
2 2 Sharpin 1.40 SCRATCH
4 4 Tappanzee 5.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Slimey 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Destiny Over Fate 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Fetching 3.00 5.4 10-1
11 10 Hit a Provisional 10.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Flush 3.50 7.3 14-1
7 7 Grand Banks 10.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Singular Sensation 8.00 8.9 17-1
10 9 Dooder 12.00 9.7 18-1
1 1 Cheatham Hill 12.00 10.1 19-1
6 6 Miss Jen 15.00 11.3 21-1
9 8 Danielle’s Pride 12.00 11.4 21-1
12A 11 Lady Love 4.00 17 32-1
5A 5 Barrel of Destiny 4.00 19.3 37-1
8 8 Y’allcomenow 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Carlisle Belle 5.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Paved With Gold 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Smokin Platinum 12.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Cerretalto 3.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Sudden Surprise 3.50 6.4 12-1
7 7 Shamrock Kid 10.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 O Shea Can U See 5.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 T Loves a Fight 6.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Binkster 4.50 7.9 15-1
2 2 Zonic 6.00 9.9 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Catch a Bid 2.50 3.9 7-1
10 9 Stellar Agent 6.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Belle Laura 8.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Comic Kitten 15.00 6.3 12-1
7 6 Dance Till Dawn 15.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Quiet Dignity 8.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Xanthique 8.00 8 15-1
4 4 Ebullient 10.00 9.1 17-1
12 10 Varenka 3.00 9.7 18-1
9A 8 Fancy That 15.00 16.3 31-1
6A 6 Nonsensical 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Cap de Creus 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Coronation Cup S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Break Even 2.00 1.8 3-1
6 4 Eyeinthesky 10.00 3.3 6-1
7 5 Midnight Fantasy 15.00 3.5 7-1
8 6 My Galina 6.00 4.1 8-1
3 2 Bohemian Bourbon 12.00 5.9 11-1
2 1 Lyrical Lady 8.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 I’llhandalthecash 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 A Bit of Both 2.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Abyssinian 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Pickle Rick 8.00 3.2 6-1
8 7 Mine the Coin 2.50 4 8-1
3 2 Exchequer 8.00 5 9-1
11 9 Star of the West 8.00 6.2 12-1
6 5 Wicked Trick 6.00 6.6 12-1
7 6 Storm Rider 12.00 7.3 14-1
12 10 Zorbed 6.00 7.4 14-1
2 1 Dr. Devera’s Way 20.00 7.8 15-1
5 4 Ninja Dust 30.00 9.1 17-1
10 8 Moonbounce 15.00 9.4 18-1
1 1 Dark Storm 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Go Get That 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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