Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, July 14, 2019

July 14, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Garey Park 2.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Mr. Papillon 3.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Alpha Boy 5.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Kielbasa 20.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Suzdal 3.50 4.1 8-1
6 6 Landing Gear 15.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Hide the Evidence 10.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Lively Spell 4.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Lucky At Justice 2.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Sweet Annie Cat 8.00 3.6 7-1
7 6 Honey Hearts 10.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 I’ve Got Issues 4.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Good Wishes 3.50 4.4 8-1
2 2 Countess St Michel 20.00 5.3 10-1
8 7 Hoosessential 15.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lapis Storm 1.80 2.9 5-1
9 8 Keeneasabean 3.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Tango City 12.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Go Yeowomen 6.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Ronan 6.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 White Birch 12.00 5 9-1
7 7 Swiss Dot 15.00 5.9 11-1
10 9 Ben’s Little Cupid 15.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Isadora 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Midnight Grace 20.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Red Jersey 15.00 2.6 5-1
5 4 Hat Tip 2.50 2.9 5-1
6 5 Lavina 4.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Feisty Chi Chi 6.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Luna Fortis 3.00 3.9 7-1
3 2 Chrome Attack 15.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Ghaaleb’s Dreams 6.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Waiver Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Knockyourblockoff 5.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Jeggyjeggy 6.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Blue Steel 8.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Ready’s Mission 4.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 No Boundaries 2.50 4.4 8-1
4 4 Mighty Might 8.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Intrysting 12.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 J Z’s Last Try 15.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Match Play 4.00 3.2 6-1
5 4 Ferlin Husky 3.00 3.7 7-1
8 6 I Am too Wild 4.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Richiesonarampage 3.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 Run Your Race 15.00 4.6 9-1
4 3 Battle N Away 6.00 4.7 9-1
9 7 Country Cool 12.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Striking Heir 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Back Page 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 V J’s Bet 2.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 Orbelina 4.50 SCRATCH
6 4 Bizzee Mischief 15.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Pocket of Candy 12.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 On Probation 8.00 4.6 9-1
8 6 Brittney On Blades 20.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Neuqua 15.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Flat Meadow 4.00 SCRATCH
7 5 Holy Legal (BRZ) 3.50 6.5 12-1
9 7 Miss Juilana 30.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Musical Interest 2.50 3.6 7-1
9 7 Rich Tradition 3.50 3.8 7-1
2 2 The Dogmen 5.00 3.9 7-1
5 4 Cup Game 15.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Cats Valentine 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Tio Chuy 20.00 SCRATCH
7 5 McLance 8.00 5.5 10-1
4 3 Bold Attack 20.00 5.8 11-1
8 6 Roul the Ice 6.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Purrfect Kitten 20.00 7.1 13-1
11 9 Maximus Image 8.00 7.7 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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